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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

However the current competition is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and longtime also-rans rising in unison. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

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