A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
